By Naveed Qazi
As rising ethanol demand and El Nino conditions affect India’s sugarcane industry, the surplus for export is poised to likely decrease for next three seasons. Millions of tons of sugar will be off the world market, threatening supplies for importers across Asia, Africa, and Middle East.
India’s Shrinking Sugar Exports Raise Global Supply Concerns
It also shows that weather risks and biofuel policies are greatly reshaping global sugar trade flows. Recently, Reuters had done interviews with over a dozen trade and industry executives, government sources, and farmers. They concluded that rising ethanol demand will leave little scope for exports for several years, prompting dealers at global houses to warn head offices of shrinking trade opportunities in India.
In Indian culture, sugar is a top-consumed product, mainly used in sweets and many poorer households rely on its cheap source of calories.
Statistics reveal that India exported 6.8 million metric tons of sugar annually on average in the five seasons through 2022-23. It comes to around ten per cent of global shipments. In 2026, after exporting around eight hundred thousand tons, India banned shipments until the end of September 2026, the end of the season, while allowing certain previously cleared shipments to proceed.
According to Vijendra Singh, president of the All-India Distillers’ Association (AIDA), ethanol has already structurally altered mill economics. He believes that even before 2026’s weather concerns, ethanol had already changed how mills think about sugar. In a structural sense, the president of AIDA believes that the ethanol programme has already reduced how much surplus sugar is set aside for export compared to a few years ago.Ethanol Blending Policy Transforms India’s Sugar Industry
As of now, Indian mills need government approval to export sugar. According to an article in Business Standard, fixed-price ethanol contracts backed by the government provide mills with a more predictable income stream than volatile export markets.
The Indian government is likely to hold back export permissions each season rather than announce a multiyear ban, government and industry experts have warned. In June 2026, a top minister in the government told mills to prioritise domestic availability and not lobby for exports, on the condition of anonymity because the discussions were confidential, as per Reuters. India’s Department of Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs has not responded to a request for comment on the prospects for exports or its restrictions on exports to the press agency.
Farmers, for survival, are likely to switch to less water-intensive crops, which could drag down cane acreage and availability in the 2027-28 season. That is why local authorities have started promoting alternative crops such as soybeans, pigeon peas, and other pulse varieties in most sugar-growing regions. The farmers have low water supplies for irrigation.
At the same time, India is pushing for higher ethanol blending with petrol and wider adoption of flex-fuel vehicles to cut dependence on expensive imported crude, according to Indian industry estimates.
El Niño and Climate Change Threaten Sugarcane Production
As climate change threatens Indian climate, El Nino conditions are forecast to weaken India’s monsoon rains in 2026 to their lowest in eleven years. Below-average rains, coupled with precipitation running more than forty percent below average, have prompted farmers to delay planting. Crop GPT, an AI powered market intelligence platform, has suggested that water shortages have been reported in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, reflecting farmer issues.
AVM GP Sharma, President Meteorology and Climate of Skymet said in an interview to Hindu Business Line that El Nino events typically last nine to twelve months, meaning the current episode could weaken after the Northern Hemisphere winter and end before next year’s monsoon. However, the following devolving El Nino phase can still adversely affect rainfall. He believes that devolving El Nino is also not a very safe period which we consider, but then it is not as harmful as El Nino.
E20 Fuel Debate and the Future of India’s Ethanol Strategy
In addition to these developments, an environmental debate regarding ethanol usage in petrol E20 in India is taking place. Some say that it can cause real mechanical problems regarding corrosion and cold temperature operations in cars, though severity depends on the vehicle’s manufacturing year.
To counter these claims, the Indian government and testing bodies like the Automotive Research Association of India state that E20 is entirely safe for newer cars. However, the testing body has stated that using E20 in E10-compatible vehicles could lead to deterioration of rubber fuel-system components such as hoses, gaskets, seals, and O-rings, with some parts potentially requiring replacement, according to the summary of the report, which was not made public.
People have complained of a drop in mileage and wear and tear due to the use of E20 fuel in E10-compatible vehicles. The government has criticised the claims, as per an India Today report. The ARAI study, which began in March 2022, examined the impact of E20 on E10-compatible vehicles. The ARAI study, which was not made public, found that the overall impact of E20 on E10-compatible vehicles was mixed. The ARAI findings underscore the need for vehicle owners with pre-2023 models to monitor fuel system components closely.
As per The Times of India report, the real debate starts now, as Bureau of Indian Standards has already rolled out fuel standards for E22, E25, E27, and E30. There are speculations that government may blend ethanol blending in regular petrol beyond E20. However, officials maintain that any move to a higher blend, will happen only after extensive research, testing, and consultation with stakeholders.
The challenge for policymakers is no longer simply to balance sugar exports with its domestic consumption. Rather, it is to reconcile food security, farmer incomes, water sustainability, and energy security within a coherent long-term strategy. Future decisions on ethanol blending, export permissions, and crop diversification will require greater policy coordination and transparency to avoid unintentional consequences for both Indian consumers and global sugar markets. As climate variability intensifies, India’s sugar sector is likely to become a test case example for how governments manage the complex trade-offs between agricultural resilience and the transition to cleaner fuels.
Naveed Qazi is a Contributing Editor at Science Matters and a published author. Hailing from Srinagar, Kashmir, with a postgraduate degree in International Business from the University of Hertfordshire, United Kingdom, he writes on science, technology, business, global affairs, and has contributed to all leading English-language newspapers in Kashmir. His professional experience spans hospital marketing, banking, construction operations and IT content development across India and the United Arab Emirates.